Information of dwelling prices from RP Data, Australian Property Monitors (APM) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that few locations had extraordinary price growth in the 2010 financial year.
Melbourne certainly did, but most of the other state and territory capital cities had markets ranging from below-par to “normal”.
Brisbane, for example, had price growth averaging 4% to 8%, depending on which data source you believe. Perth prices grew 9%, if you accept APM figures, or just 4%, if you favour RP Data’s data.
Sydney’s market had an average year (10%, according to RP Data), or slightly above-average (13%, according to APM) or an exceptional year (a 21% rise in the ABS house price index). Canberra had an above-average year, according to both the ABS and APM, but merely an average year, if you believe RP Data.
The average market performance across the eight state and territory capitals ranges from mediocre (RP Data’s 10%) to good (APM’s 15%) to very good (the ABS’s 18%).
Therein lies the problem. There are such wide variations in the results published by the various data sources that it’s difficult to determine what has really happened in our markets.
The ongoing dilemma for real estate consumers is the nature of media coverage of the market. Each scrap of “research” spat out by the industry is treated as a matter of great significance, even when it contradicts information released by another source only days earlier.
When RP-Data published its June Quarter figures for houses, showing a tiny (0.3%) decrease in the price index for the eight capital cities, most media reported this as “the end of the boom”. But the ABS recorded a 3.1% increase in its price index for the June Quarter and APM reported a 2.4% rise.
There is, indeed, very little consistency among the three sources on what occurred with prices in the June Quarter. In Darwin, for example, APM says prices fell 0.7%, while RP Data says they rose 0.3% and the ABS says there was a 2.8% rise. Both APM and ABS say Perth prices rose slightly but RP Data says they fell 2.8%.
So where do the different data sources agree? Here’s what we can be reasonably sure about …
· Brisbane has been the bottom-ranked capital city on growth in house prices, although both APM and the ABS record 7-8% growth over 12 months, which suggests a solid market.
· Melbourne is the top-ranked capital city with all three data sources, but the level of growth differs greatly. APM claims Melbourne’s median price rose 28% in 12 months, but RP Data says 16%. The latter suggests a good year but the former records a phenomenal performance.
· APM and RP Data report a 15-16% rise in apartment prices in Melbourne, a 7-8% increase in Adelaide, and an 11-12% improvement in Sydney.
· Adelaide has had a good, solid house market for 12 months, with prices on average rising 10% to 12%.
· Canberra ranked in the middle of the pack with all three research sources which, historically, is what the national capital always does – never the market leader, but seldom performing poorly.
SOURCE: Terry Ryder, The Australian
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